{ "schemaVersion": 1, "version": "season-scale-damped-transfer-v1", "generatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:10:36.333Z", "status": "candidate_for_next_season", "method": { "title": "按赛季动态尺度与增长趋势预测最终档位", "summary": "先用首批 Top50 中段判断本期整体强弱，再用后续批次相对历史的增长调整剩余涨幅，最后按历史百分位关系映射到各档；属性效果先由实测吸收。", "steps": [ { "title": "首批确定赛季尺度", "description": "把本期第6—45名与已结束历史在相同挑战进度的成绩逐名相除，取中位数。实际数值自动吸收角色、Boss、属性与练度的综合差异。" }, { "title": "次批起更新增长趋势", "description": "只用当时已录入的批次估计相对历史的对数增长斜率；样本少时收缩向0，后续影响按24小时阻尼，不把首日涨幅一直线性推到结算。" }, { "title": "分档拟合、有限收缩", "description": "3%、1%、0.5%各自估计历史弹性，但向0.8共同先验收缩；只有少量跨季转移时避免把每个档位精确拟合成漂亮答案。" }, { "title": "学习属性残差", "description": "只有至少3个已结束的同弱点赛季才启用属性残差修正，并只修正扣除头部尺度后的差异。当前火/风数据不足，不另造固定属性倍率。" }, { "title": "固定时间切分与记录", "description": "每次只读较早赛季与当时可用数据；正式发布保留不可变记录，结算后只评分。商店已在当前成绩中体现时不重复叠加。" } ], "limitations": [ "只有S16、S17具有可用赛中轨迹，百分位标签主要来自S15—S17；同季多个快照不是多个独立赛季。", "头部Top50不能唯一决定前3%、1%、0.5%分布；不掌握全体参赛分布时，百分位预测始终依赖历史迁移假设。", "新方法是在S17结束后设计，S17历史回放没有使用S17最终值计算，但设计本身仍有事后选择影响，不能称为提前实测准确率。", "S17五个百分位目标是站长采纳的边界附近玩家成绩，伤害整数精确，百分位显示经两位小数处理；并非精确到个位的理论阈值。", "微信3.08%样本不能作为3%训练目标；S17微信3%与双服Top200无可靠值，保持空缺。", "情景区间没有概率校准；不能承诺首日、次日必然准确。未来按赛季积累独立误差后才调整和验证参数。" ] }, "parameters": { "anchorRanks": [ 6, 45 ], "priorElasticity": 0.8, "elasticityPriorTransitions": 2, "elasticityBounds": [ 0.2, 1.5 ], "minimumScaleChange": 0.1, "trendLookbackHours": 48, "trendDampingHours": 24, "trendShrinkageHours": 24, "minimumTrendSeparationHours": 3, "maximumRelativeTrendPerDay": 0.2, "attributeMinimumSeasons": 3, "attributePriorSeasons": 3, "scenarioElasticityDeviation": 0.2, "scenarioResidualStress": 0.15, "scenarioLabel": "敏感性情景范围；未经独立校准，不代表置信水平" }, "training": { "seasons": [ 15, 16, 17 ], "trajectorySeasons": [ 16, 17 ], "elasticitySeasons": [ 15, 16, 17 ], "elasticities": { "p3": { "beta": 0.7746528145714743, "unconstrainedBeta": 0.7746528145714743, "observedMedian": 0.7493056291429485, "transitionCount": 2, "prior": 0.8, "priorWeight": 2, "constrained": false, "transitions": [ { "from": 15, "to": 16, "beta": 0.5885422238645398, "servers": [ { "server": "qq", "beta": 0.5885422238645398, "headRatio": 0.7295265802120878, "thresholdRatio": 0.8306038047973532 } ] }, { "from": 16, "to": 17, "beta": 0.9100690344213571, "servers": [ { "server": "qq", "beta": 0.9100690344213571, "headRatio": 1.5691689733481404, "thresholdRatio": 1.5068601444931289 } ] } ], "reason": "逐档历史弹性向共同先验收缩；独立单位为跨季转移" }, "p1": { "beta": 0.8122568910376334, "unconstrainedBeta": 0.8122568910376334, "observedMedian": 0.8245137820752668, "transitionCount": 2, "prior": 0.8, "priorWeight": 2, "constrained": false, "transitions": [ { "from": 15, "to": 16, "beta": 0.7588268374419185, "servers": [ { "server": "qq", "beta": 0.7273209879145948, "headRatio": 0.7295265802120878, "thresholdRatio": 0.7950362520914668 }, { "server": "wx", "beta": 0.7903326869692422, "headRatio": 0.7719531745747289, "thresholdRatio": 0.8150034730261635 } ] }, { "from": 16, "to": 17, "beta": 0.8902007267086152, "servers": [ { "server": "qq", "beta": 0.8450251211204606, "headRatio": 1.5691689733481404, "thresholdRatio": 1.4633419486495967 }, { "server": "wx", "beta": 0.9353763322967698, "headRatio": 1.5115703177972426, "thresholdRatio": 1.4717465852272726 } ] } ], "reason": "逐档历史弹性向共同先验收缩；独立单位为跨季转移" }, "p0_5": { "beta": 0.839995338315842, "unconstrainedBeta": 0.839995338315842, "observedMedian": 0.8799906766316841, "transitionCount": 2, "prior": 0.8, "priorWeight": 2, "constrained": false, "transitions": [ { "from": 15, "to": 16, "beta": 0.8461083970457701, "servers": [ { "server": "qq", "beta": 0.7921383067293245, "headRatio": 0.7295265802120878, "thresholdRatio": 0.7789500772002058 }, { "server": "wx", "beta": 0.9000784873622159, "headRatio": 0.7719531745747289, "thresholdRatio": 0.7921784776902887 } ] }, { "from": 16, "to": 17, "beta": 0.913872956217598, "servers": [ { "server": "qq", "beta": 0.8864558447440792, "headRatio": 1.5691689733481404, "thresholdRatio": 1.4909138877436405 }, { "server": "wx", "beta": 0.9412900676911169, "headRatio": 1.5115703177972426, "thresholdRatio": 1.4753468326154662 } ] } ], "reason": "逐档历史弹性向共同先验收缩；独立单位为跨季转移" }, "top200": { "beta": 0.8172366617614953, "unconstrainedBeta": 0.8172366617614953, "observedMedian": 0.8517099852844859, "transitionCount": 1, "prior": 0.8, "priorWeight": 2, "constrained": false, "transitions": [ { "from": 15, "to": 16, "beta": 0.8517099852844859, "servers": [ { "server": "qq", "beta": 0.8517099852844859, "headRatio": 0.7295265802120878, "thresholdRatio": 0.7644529383659818 } ] } ], "reason": "逐档历史弹性向共同先验收缩；独立单位为跨季转移" }, "top50": { "beta": 1, "transitionCount": 0, "reason": "直接观察名次，使用历史剩余增长" }, "top1": { "beta": 1, "transitionCount": 0, "reason": "直接观察名次，使用历史剩余增长" } }, "coverage": [ { "season": 1, "weakness": "水冷代码", "servers": { "qq": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] }, "wx": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] } } }, { "season": 2, "weakness": "燃烧代码", "servers": { "qq": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] }, "wx": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] } } }, { "season": 3, "weakness": "铁甲代码", "servers": { "qq": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] }, "wx": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] } } }, { "season": 4, "weakness": "电击代码", "servers": { "qq": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] }, "wx": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] } } }, { "season": 5, "weakness": "铁甲代码", "servers": { "qq": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] }, "wx": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] } } }, { "season": 6, "weakness": "铁甲代码", "servers": { "qq": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] }, "wx": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] } } }, { "season": 7, "weakness": "燃烧代码", "servers": { "qq": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] }, "wx": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] } } }, { "season": 8, "weakness": "水冷代码", "servers": { "qq": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] }, "wx": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] } } }, { "season": 9, "weakness": "铁甲代码", "servers": { "qq": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] }, "wx": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] } } }, { "season": 10, "weakness": "电击代码", "servers": { "qq": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] }, "wx": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] } } }, { "season": 11, "weakness": "燃烧代码", "servers": { "qq": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] }, "wx": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] } } }, { "season": 12, "weakness": "电击代码", "servers": { "qq": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] }, "wx": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] } } }, { "season": 13, "weakness": "水冷代码", "servers": { "qq": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] }, "wx": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] } } }, { "season": 14, "weakness": "水冷代码", "servers": { "qq": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] }, "wx": { "completeFinalTop50": false, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [] } } }, { "season": 15, "weakness": "燃烧代码", "servers": { "qq": { "completeFinalTop50": true, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [ "p3", "p1", "p0_5", "top200", "top50", "top1" ] }, "wx": { "completeFinalTop50": true, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 0, "verifiedTargets": [ "p1", "p0_5", "top50", "top1" ] } } }, { "season": 16, "weakness": "风压代码", "servers": { "qq": { "completeFinalTop50": true, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 14, "verifiedTargets": [ "p3", "p1", "p0_5", "top200", "top50", "top1" ] }, "wx": { "completeFinalTop50": true, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 11, "verifiedTargets": [ "p1", "p0_5", "top50", "top1" ] } } }, { "season": 17, "weakness": "燃烧代码", "servers": { "qq": { "completeFinalTop50": true, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 6, "verifiedTargets": [ "p3", "p1", "p0_5", "top50", "top1" ] }, "wx": { "completeFinalTop50": true, "completeProvisionalSnapshots": 6, "verifiedTargets": [ "p1", "p0_5", "top50", "top1" ] } } } ], "finalTargets": { "15": { "qq": { "p3": 12090000000, "p1": 17930000000, "p0_5": 19430000000, "top200": 20930000000, "top50": 23317667064, "top1": 30909084073 }, "wx": { "p3": null, "p1": 17276000000, "p0_5": 19050000000, "top200": null, "top50": 22298899070, "top1": 29838882270 } }, "16": { "qq": { "p3": 10042000000, "p1": 14255000000, "p0_5": 15135000000, "top200": 16000000000, "top50": 17493490954, "top1": 20166982820 }, "wx": { "p3": null, "p1": 14080000000, "p0_5": 15091000000, "top200": null, "top50": 17025026724, "top1": 20486847461 } }, "17": { "qq": { "p3": 15131889571, "p1": 20859939478, "p0_5": 22564981691, "top200": null, "top50": 27276792383, "top1": 35306239475 }, "wx": { "p3": null, "p1": 20722191920, "p0_5": 22264459051, "top200": null, "top50": 26053708737, "top1": 34341630854 } } } }, "validation": { "prospectivelyValidatedSeasons": 0, "availableProspectiveLegacyTestSeasons": [ 17 ], "note": "旧模型在S17的真实事前发布可结算评分；新模型仅事后时间切分回放。S16之前缺赛中轨迹，不能声称验证S16首日预测。", "selection": { "status": "candidate_not_promoted_as_more_accurate", "reason": "S17严格信息截断回放没有全面超过已发布v2；新参数含S17结算信息，只供未来赛季使用。", "benchmark": "fixed-elasticity-phase-v2-generalized", "instruction": "新运行同时返回候选和固定0.8基准，下一期结算后按整季比较，不以S17结果宣称候选更准。" } }, "sources": [ { "title": "Forecasting: Principles and Practice：时间序列评估与训练/测试分离", "url": "https://otexts.com/fpp3/toolbox.html" }, { "title": "Forecasting: Principles and Practice：阻尼趋势", "url": "https://otexts.com/fpp3/exponential-smoothing.html" }, { "title": "Stan User’s Guide：截断与删失数据", "url": "https://mc-stan.org/docs/stan-users-guide/truncation-censoring.html" } ] }