{ "schemaVersion": 1, "modelVersion": "season-scale-damped-transfer-v1", "generatedAt": "2026-10-24T15:10:36.333Z", "targetUnit": "integer_damage", "targetCaveat": "S17五个百分位目标是站长采纳的边界附近玩家成绩，伤害整数精确，百分位显示经两位小数处理；并非精确到个位的理论阈值。", "sources": [ { "title": "Forecasting: Principles and Practice：时间序列评估与训练/测试分离", "url": "https://otexts.com/fpp3/toolbox.html" }, { "title": "Forecasting: Principles and Practice：阻尼趋势", "url": "https://otexts.com/fpp3/exponential-smoothing.html" }, { "title": "Stan User’s Guide：截断与删失数据", "url": "https://mc-stan.org/docs/stan-users-guide/truncation-censoring.html" } ], "actuals": { "schemaVersion": 1, "season": 17, "state": "final_verified", "settlementAt": "2026-10-22T00:00:00+08:00", "verifiedAt": "2026-10-21T16:44:23Z", "source": "站长上传结算.rar，22张原始截图逐项核对；百分比线为个人百分位边界附近样本。", "thresholds": { "qq": { "p3": 15131889571, "p1": 20859939478, "p0_5": 22564981691, "top200": null, "top50": 27276792383, "top1": 35306239475 }, "wx": { "p3": null, "p1": 20722191920, "p0_5": 22264459051, "top200": null, "top50": 26053708737, "top1": 34341630854 } }, "thresholdEvidence": { "qq": { "p3": { "server": "qq", "percentile": 3, "value": 15131889571, "nickname": "香風智乃", "guild": "星が瞬二会", "targetKey": "p3", "type": "near_boundary_observation", "exactThreshold": false, "percentileDisplayPrecision": 0.01, "source": "结算/qq/qq 百三.jpg", "sourceImageHash": "27b56a41d41fa1f4d5cecdf80153b81481965f2963cb1c5d192fe38f6336d43e", "evidenceUrl": "/assets/evidence/s17-final/qq-percentile-3.webp", "note": "用户指定的结算档位样本；截图显示玩家百分位与精确个人伤害。百分位只有两位小数，不能证明全服边界精确至个位伤害。" }, "p1": { "server": "qq", "percentile": 1, "value": 20859939478, "nickname": "匿名玩家", "guild": null, "targetKey": "p1", "type": "near_boundary_observation", "exactThreshold": false, "percentileDisplayPrecision": 0.01, "source": "结算/qq/qq 百一.jpg", "sourceImageHash": "21fb7b3c2a3d42f94f6947e95b0fdb83b0d22dc20b2d057d5947c9e484401e7e", "evidenceUrl": "/assets/evidence/s17-final/qq-percentile-1.webp", "note": "用户指定的结算档位样本；截图显示玩家百分位与精确个人伤害。百分位只有两位小数，不能证明全服边界精确至个位伤害。" }, "p0_5": { "server": "qq", "percentile": 0.5, "value": 22564981691, "nickname": "八奈见七海", "guild": "柔情猫娘质检部", "targetKey": "p0_5", "type": "near_boundary_observation", "exactThreshold": false, "percentileDisplayPrecision": 0.01, "source": "结算/qq/qq 0.5档位.jpg", "sourceImageHash": "07129498bd246ea03f2f4c3a51404bf60e5fcb0679da3925c30d8ffff9231d80", "evidenceUrl": "/assets/evidence/s17-final/qq-percentile-0-5.webp", "note": "用户指定的结算档位样本；截图显示玩家百分位与精确个人伤害。百分位只有两位小数，不能证明全服边界精确至个位伤害。" }, "top1": { "type": "official_rank_score", "exact": true, "rank": 1, "value": 35306239475, "source": "结算/qq/QQ20261022-000252.png", "sourceImageHash": "21d54f1137ad2283b260b9ca2edb06cf1e2978096e1132fc68eb5a758b06fda6", "evidenceUrl": "/assets/evidence/s17-final/qq-qq20261022-000252.webp" }, "top50": { "type": "official_rank_score", "exact": true, "rank": 50, "value": 27276792383, "source": "结算/qq/QQ20261022-000415.png", "sourceImageHash": "4bfb5eeac7d35f746f5e3140aebf9a7e8982a9e64d5aee47a0479caae7f46b60", "evidenceUrl": "/assets/evidence/s17-final/qq-qq20261022-000415.webp" } }, "wx": { "p1": { "server": "wx", "percentile": 1, "value": 20722191920, "nickname": "ORZ", "guild": "星屿破晓", "targetKey": "p1", "type": "near_boundary_observation", "exactThreshold": false, "percentileDisplayPrecision": 0.01, "source": "结算/wx/微信百一.png", "sourceImageHash": "1d057de2b1bc37263ff67689f12f4df91542776a760547625f1f546c10b58c6f", "evidenceUrl": "/assets/evidence/s17-final/wx-percentile-1.webp", "note": "用户指定的结算档位样本；截图显示玩家百分位与精确个人伤害。百分位只有两位小数，不能证明全服边界精确至个位伤害。" }, "p0_5": { "server": "wx", "percentile": 0.5, "value": 22264459051, "nickname": "SAIKA", "guild": "LONGINUS", "targetKey": "p0_5", "type": "near_boundary_observation", "exactThreshold": false, "percentileDisplayPrecision": 0.01, "source": "结算/wx/微信零点五.jpg", "sourceImageHash": "6d30eabb66e2912862bf7e8359f15b4de36afd03bd1de60d3d30171c11a69827", "evidenceUrl": "/assets/evidence/s17-final/wx-percentile-0-5.webp", "note": "用户指定的结算档位样本；截图显示玩家百分位与精确个人伤害。百分位只有两位小数，不能证明全服边界精确至个位伤害。" }, "top1": { "type": "official_rank_score", "exact": true, "rank": 1, "value": 34341630854, "source": "结算/wx/QQ20261022-001515.png", "sourceImageHash": "d2e43182b89575c87f66d39bad64fdfdef8e7eadf54016d4c549681d8f8c08db", "evidenceUrl": "/assets/evidence/s17-final/wx-qq20261022-001515.webp" }, "top50": { "type": "official_rank_score", "exact": true, "rank": 50, "value": 26053708737, "source": "结算/wx/QQ20261022-001603.png", "sourceImageHash": "c3401e446b22f3448f2f97b560d3fae6461a3f48bdc629e4f6092f845637d5c4", "evidenceUrl": "/assets/evidence/s17-final/wx-qq20261022-001603.webp" } } }, "observations": [ { "server": "qq", "percentile": 3, "value": 15131889571, "nickname": "香風智乃", "guild": "星が瞬二会", "targetKey": "p3", "type": "near_boundary_observation", "exactThreshold": false, "percentileDisplayPrecision": 0.01, "source": "结算/qq/qq 百三.jpg", "sourceImageHash": "27b56a41d41fa1f4d5cecdf80153b81481965f2963cb1c5d192fe38f6336d43e", "evidenceUrl": "/assets/evidence/s17-final/qq-percentile-3.webp" }, { "server": "qq", "percentile": 1, "value": 20859939478, "nickname": "匿名玩家", "guild": null, "targetKey": "p1", "type": "near_boundary_observation", "exactThreshold": false, "percentileDisplayPrecision": 0.01, "source": "结算/qq/qq 百一.jpg", "sourceImageHash": "21fb7b3c2a3d42f94f6947e95b0fdb83b0d22dc20b2d057d5947c9e484401e7e", "evidenceUrl": "/assets/evidence/s17-final/qq-percentile-1.webp" }, { "server": "qq", "percentile": 0.5, "value": 22564981691, "nickname": "八奈见七海", "guild": "柔情猫娘质检部", "targetKey": "p0_5", "type": "near_boundary_observation", "exactThreshold": false, "percentileDisplayPrecision": 0.01, "source": "结算/qq/qq 0.5档位.jpg", "sourceImageHash": "07129498bd246ea03f2f4c3a51404bf60e5fcb0679da3925c30d8ffff9231d80", "evidenceUrl": "/assets/evidence/s17-final/qq-percentile-0-5.webp" }, { "server": "wx", "percentile": 3.08, "value": 14242638473, "nickname": "雪之下雪乃", "guild": "皇冠", "targetKey": null, "type": "nearby_lower_score_observation", "exactThreshold": false, "percentileDisplayPrecision": 0.01, "source": "结算/wx/微信百三.jpg", "sourceImageHash": "94c438676e3115e92e6d132914d31b43a8334e2c8785f9f6fc291047eca26064", "evidenceUrl": "/assets/evidence/s17-final/wx-percentile-3-08.webp" }, { "server": "wx", "percentile": 1, "value": 20722191920, "nickname": "ORZ", "guild": "星屿破晓", "targetKey": "p1", "type": "near_boundary_observation", "exactThreshold": false, "percentileDisplayPrecision": 0.01, "source": "结算/wx/微信百一.png", "sourceImageHash": "1d057de2b1bc37263ff67689f12f4df91542776a760547625f1f546c10b58c6f", "evidenceUrl": "/assets/evidence/s17-final/wx-percentile-1.webp" }, { "server": "wx", "percentile": 0.5, "value": 22264459051, "nickname": "SAIKA", "guild": "LONGINUS", "targetKey": "p0_5", "type": "near_boundary_observation", "exactThreshold": false, "percentileDisplayPrecision": 0.01, "source": "结算/wx/微信零点五.jpg", "sourceImageHash": "6d30eabb66e2912862bf7e8359f15b4de36afd03bd1de60d3d30171c11a69827", "evidenceUrl": "/assets/evidence/s17-final/wx-percentile-0-5.webp" }, { "server": "wx", "percentile": 2.95, "value": 14495918012, "nickname": "晴虹", "guild": "皇冠", "targetKey": null, "targetPercentile": 3, "type": "nearby_upper_score_observation", "exactThreshold": false, "percentileDisplayPrecision": 0.01, "source": "extracted-supplement/结算-补充/wx/微信百三补充（2.95）.png", "sourceImageHash": "e7d56c3f70ddfe17e0d12e7a739b96bbef4f6a88d012a8890a745a7001e0c49b", "evidenceUrl": "/assets/evidence/s17-final/wx-percentile-2-95.webp", "note": "原图显示2.95%，为3%附近较高伤害样本，不伪称3.00%精确边界。" } ], "limitations": [ "QQ与微信百分比档位来自玩家百分位截图，个人伤害为精确整数，但两位小数百分位不足以证明理论边界精确至个位伤害。", "没有Top200原图，两个区top200保留null。", "微信3%保留null；3.08%=14,242,638,473及2.95%=14,495,918,012是两条不同玩家的独立近线样本，不是精确3.00%线。" ], "nearbyReferenceRanges": { "wxP3": { "exact": null, "targetPercentile": 3, "lowerObservedDamage": 14242638473, "lowerObservedPercentile": 3.08, "upperObservedDamage": 14495918012, "upperObservedPercentile": 2.95, "note": "两条玩家实测包围3%附近，不能据此推导精确理论边界。" } }, "supplementSource": "s17-final-supplement.json", "championsSource": "s17-champions-20261022-final.json" }, "legacy": { "runs": [ { "id": "s17-20261017-1600-658f21470ecd", "asOf": "2026-10-17T08:00:00.000Z", "issuedAt": "2026-10-17T08:25:20.838Z", "version": "s17-threshold-transfer-v1", "hoursRemaining": 104, "rows": [ { "server": "qq", "target": "p3", "model": "phase", "estimate": 17034086333, "actual": 15131889571, "lower": 12577786614, "upper": 21481568879, "absoluteError": 1902196762, "absolutePercentageError": 12.570781415465301, "signedPercentageError": 12.570781415465301, "inScenarioRange": true, "relativeIntervalWidth": 0.5884117924085266, "signedError": 1902196762 }, { "server": "qq", "target": "p3", "model": "growth", "estimate": 17081629187, "actual": 15131889571, "lower": 12773921250, "upper": 21352036484, "absoluteError": 1949739616, "absolutePercentageError": 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"relativeIntervalWidth": 0.17378832110646236, "signedError": -517724318 }, { "server": "wx", "target": "top50", "model": "growth", "estimate": 25444448899, "actual": 26053708737, "lower": 25095400801, "upper": 29361872023, "absoluteError": 609259838, "absolutePercentageError": 2.338476430170434, "signedPercentageError": -2.338476430170434, "inScenarioRange": true, "relativeIntervalWidth": 0.16375677125541055, "signedError": -609259838 }, { "server": "wx", "target": "top1", "model": "phase", "estimate": 31857708565, "actual": 34341630854, "lower": 31857708565, "upper": 37196593097, "absoluteError": 2483922289, "absolutePercentageError": 7.232977081257866, "signedPercentageError": -7.232977081257866, "inScenarioRange": true, "relativeIntervalWidth": 0.15546391942472773, "signedError": -2483922289 }, { "server": "wx", "target": "top1", "model": "growth", "estimate": 33276925737, "actual": 34341630854, "lower": 31857708565, "upper": 40565764256, "absoluteError": 1064705117, 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"percentileTargets": { "count": 5, "mae": 1077918722.6, "mapePercent": 5.331241680997243, "signedPercent": -5.331241680997243 }, "percentileServers": { "qq": { "count": 3, "mae": 877816820, "mapePercent": 4.613720408963585, "signedPercent": -4.613720408963585 }, "wx": { "count": 2, "mae": 1378071576.5, "mapePercent": 6.407523589047731, "signedPercent": -6.407523589047731 } } } ] } ], "percentileCorrection": [ { "id": "s17-percentile-correction-20261021-v1", "issuedAt": "2026-10-21T12:59:42.790Z", "rows": [ { "server": "qq", "target": "p3", "estimate": 14323426995, "actual": 15131889571, "lower": 13050542265, "upper": 15698575085, "signedPercentageError": -5.3427734335928845, "inScenarioRange": true }, { "server": "qq", "target": "p1", "estimate": 20976051079, "actual": 20859939478, "lower": 20559316440, "upper": 21477983859, "signedPercentageError": 0.5566248220540526, "inScenarioRange": true }, { "server": "qq", "target": "p0_5", "estimate": 22884103653, "actual": 22564981691, "lower": 22429461421, "upper": 23431693937, "signedPercentageError": 1.4142354129508705, "inScenarioRange": true }, { "server": "wx", "target": "p1", "estimate": 20688840463, "actual": 20722191920, "lower": 19708975293, "upper": 21183900623, "signedPercentageError": -0.1609456042524715, "inScenarioRange": true }, { "server": "wx", "target": "p0_5", "estimate": 22174381493, "actual": 22264459051, "lower": 21732807324, "upper": 22704988942, "signedPercentageError": -0.40458004298987715, "inScenarioRange": true } ], "percentileTargets": { "count": 5, "mae": 273425030.8, "mapePercent": 1.5758318631680313, "signedPercent": -0.787487769166062 }, "note": "含赛末额外百分位观测，不能与只输入Top50的首日预测混作同条件比较。" } ] }, "prospective": { "runs": [], "unscored": [], "independentTargetSeasons": [], "note": "新通用模型真实结算前发行的冻结记录；结算后自动按该季实际资料评分，候选与固定0.8基准分别保留。" }, "replay": { "runs": [ { "season": 17, "mode": "retrospective_replay", "asOf": "2026-10-17T08:00:00.000Z", "rows": [ { "server": "qq", "target": "p3", "estimate": 14440725814, "actual": 15131889571, "signedError": -691163757, "signedPercentageError": -4.567597151413283, "absolutePercentageError": 4.567597151413283, "lower": 11291766681, "upper": 18872970509, "inScenarioRange": true, "fixedElasticityBaseline": { "version": "fixed-elasticity-phase-v2-generalized", "referenceSeason": 16, "beta": 0.8, "estimate": 15325657605, "note": "固定0.8同阶段倍率基准；不使用候选模型趋势或逐档新参数", "signedPercentageError": 1.2805276769356944 } }, { "server": "qq", "target": "p1", "estimate": 21398297217, "actual": 20859939478, "signedError": 538357739, "signedPercentageError": 2.580821193502403, "absolutePercentageError": 2.580821193502403, "lower": 16517168355, "upper": 27606665996, "inScenarioRange": true, "fixedElasticityBaseline": { "version": "fixed-elasticity-phase-v2-generalized", "referenceSeason": 16, "beta": 0.8, "estimate": 21755352435, "note": "固定0.8同阶段倍率基准；不使用候选模型趋势或逐档新参数", "signedPercentageError": 4.292500263216725 } }, { "server": "qq", "target": "p0_5", "estimate": 23201589646, "actual": 22564981691, "signedError": 636607955, "signedPercentageError": 2.8212207912134524, "absolutePercentageError": 2.8212207912134524, "lower": 17808518774, "upper": 29765018985, "inScenarioRange": true, "fixedElasticityBaseline": { "version": "fixed-elasticity-phase-v2-generalized", "referenceSeason": 16, "beta": 0.8, "estimate": 23098369632, "note": "固定0.8同阶段倍率基准；不使用候选模型趋势或逐档新参数", "signedPercentageError": 2.363786278686586 } }, { "server": "qq", "target": "top50", "estimate": 29756754199, "actual": 27276792383, "signedError": 2479961816, "signedPercentageError": 9.091838150095732, "absolutePercentageError": 9.091838150095732, "lower": 25293241069, "upper": 34220267329, "inScenarioRange": true, "fixedElasticityBaseline": { "version": "fixed-elasticity-phase-v2-generalized", "referenceSeason": 16, "beta": 1, "estimate": 29673932998, "note": "固定0.8同阶段倍率基准；不使用候选模型趋势或逐档新参数", "signedPercentageError": 8.788205670744453 } }, { "server": "qq", "target": "top1", "estimate": 33961500455, "actual": 35306239475, "signedError": -1344739020, "signedPercentageError": -3.808785755708133, "absolutePercentageError": 3.808785755708133, "lower": 29843872624, "upper": 39055725523, "inScenarioRange": true, "fixedElasticityBaseline": { "version": "fixed-elasticity-phase-v2-generalized", "referenceSeason": 16, "beta": 1, "estimate": 34208935115, "note": "固定0.8同阶段倍率基准；不使用候选模型趋势或逐档新参数", "signedPercentageError": -3.1079615850251874 } }, { "server": "wx", "target": "p1", "estimate": 21098905644, "actual": 20722191920, "signedError": 376713724, "signedPercentageError": 1.8179241146609293, "absolutePercentageError": 1.8179241146609293, "lower": 16174392991, "upper": 26875254345, "inScenarioRange": true, "fixedElasticityBaseline": { "version": "fixed-elasticity-phase-v2-generalized", "referenceSeason": 16, "beta": 0.8, "estimate": 21237041204, "note": "固定0.8同阶段倍率基准；不使用候选模型趋势或逐档新参数", "signedPercentageError": 2.484531009015001 } }, { "server": "wx", "target": "p0_5", "estimate": 23195276286, "actual": 22264459051, "signedError": 930817235, "signedPercentageError": 4.180731419828465, "absolutePercentageError": 4.180731419828465, "lower": 17596836827, "upper": 29238776729, "inScenarioRange": true, "fixedElasticityBaseline": { "version": "fixed-elasticity-phase-v2-generalized", "referenceSeason": 16, "beta": 0.8, "estimate": 22761945227, "note": "固定0.8同阶段倍率基准；不使用候选模型趋势或逐档新参数", "signedPercentageError": 2.234440885630473 } }, { "server": "wx", "target": "top50", "estimate": 30612680393, "actual": 26053708737, "signedError": 4558971656, "signedPercentageError": 17.498359646300976, "absolutePercentageError": 17.498359646300976, "lower": 26020778334, "upper": 35204582452, "inScenarioRange": true, "fixedElasticityBaseline": { "version": "fixed-elasticity-phase-v2-generalized", "referenceSeason": 16, "beta": 1, "estimate": 28457844100, "note": "固定0.8同阶段倍率基准；不使用候选模型趋势或逐档新参数", "signedPercentageError": 9.22761280272464 } }, { "server": "wx", "target": "top1", "estimate": 30990096075, "actual": 34341630854, "signedError": -3351534779, "signedPercentageError": -9.759393178642895, "absolutePercentageError": 9.759393178642895, "lower": 26652415860, "upper": 35638610487, "inScenarioRange": true, "fixedElasticityBaseline": { "version": "fixed-elasticity-phase-v2-generalized", "referenceSeason": 16, "beta": 1, "estimate": 34244381556, "note": "固定0.8同阶段倍率基准；不使用候选模型趋势或逐档新参数", "signedPercentageError": -0.2831819444261252 } } ], "allTargets": { "count": 9, "mae": 1656540853.4444444, "mapePercent": 6.23629682237403, "signedPercent": 2.20612435887085 }, "percentileTargets": { "count": 5, "mae": 634732082, "mapePercent": 3.1936589341237065, "signedPercent": 1.3666200735583933 }, "servers": { "qq": { "count": 3, "mae": 622043150.3333334, "mapePercent": 3.3232130453763795, "signedPercent": 0.2781482777675241 }, "wx": { "count": 2, "mae": 653765479.5, "mapePercent": 2.999327767244697, "signedPercent": 2.999327767244697 } }, "computedAt": "2026-10-24T15:10:36.333Z", "informationAvailableBy": "2026-10-17T08:24:15.000Z", "timeBasis": { "asOf": "owner_batch_label", "informationAvailableBy": "actual_evidence_availability_cutoff", "note": "批次标签用于挑战进度对齐；截图可能晚于标签。是否可用以截图结束及审核/获知时间不晚于实际信息截止为准。" }, "trainingSeasons": [ 15, 16 ], "elasticities": { "p3": { "beta": 0.7295140746215133, "unconstrainedBeta": 0.7295140746215133, "observedMedian": 0.5885422238645398, "transitionCount": 1, "prior": 0.8, "priorWeight": 2, "constrained": false, "transitions": [ { "from": 15, "to": 16, "beta": 0.5885422238645398, "servers": [ { "server": "qq", "beta": 0.5885422238645398, "headRatio": 0.7295265802120878, "thresholdRatio": 0.8306038047973532 } ] } ], "reason": "逐档历史弹性向共同先验收缩；独立单位为跨季转移" }, "p1": { "beta": 0.7862756124806395, "unconstrainedBeta": 0.7862756124806395, "observedMedian": 0.7588268374419185, "transitionCount": 1, "prior": 0.8, "priorWeight": 2, "constrained": false, "transitions": [ { "from": 15, "to": 16, "beta": 0.7588268374419185, "servers": [ { "server": "qq", "beta": 0.7273209879145948, "headRatio": 0.7295265802120878, "thresholdRatio": 0.7950362520914668 }, { "server": "wx", "beta": 0.7903326869692422, "headRatio": 0.7719531745747289, "thresholdRatio": 0.8150034730261635 } ] } ], "reason": "逐档历史弹性向共同先验收缩；独立单位为跨季转移" }, "p0_5": { "beta": 0.8153694656819234, "unconstrainedBeta": 0.8153694656819234, "observedMedian": 0.8461083970457701, "transitionCount": 1, "prior": 0.8, "priorWeight": 2, "constrained": false, "transitions": [ { "from": 15, "to": 16, "beta": 0.8461083970457701, "servers": [ { "server": "qq", "beta": 0.7921383067293245, "headRatio": 0.7295265802120878, "thresholdRatio": 0.7789500772002058 }, { "server": "wx", "beta": 0.9000784873622159, "headRatio": 0.7719531745747289, "thresholdRatio": 0.7921784776902887 } ] } ], "reason": "逐档历史弹性向共同先验收缩；独立单位为跨季转移" }, "top200": { "beta": 0.8172366617614953, "unconstrainedBeta": 0.8172366617614953, "observedMedian": 0.8517099852844859, 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"2026-10-18T06:13:03.344Z" }, { "snapshotId": "s17-qq-20261019-1400", "at": "2026-10-19T06:00:00.000Z", "capturedUntil": "2026-10-19T05:43:01.000Z", "availableAt": "2026-10-19T06:01:20.401Z" }, { "snapshotId": "s17-qq-20261020-1500", "at": "2026-10-20T07:00:00.000Z", "capturedUntil": "2026-10-20T06:48:28.000Z", "availableAt": "2026-10-20T06:59:26.076Z" }, { "snapshotId": "s17-qq-20261021-1800", "at": "2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z", "capturedUntil": "2026-10-21T08:42:45.000Z", "availableAt": "2026-10-21T11:08:06.709Z" } ] }, "wx": { "status": "experimental", "inferredInflation": 1.4990237802721262, "estimatedFinalHead": 26627465646.790386, "growthReferences": [ { "season": 16, "alignment": "log_interpolation", "sourceIds": [ "s16:wx:2026-09-23T00:00:top50:v1", "s16:wx:2026-09-23T21:30:top50:v1" ], "deviationHours": 0, "scale": 1.499908624702774, "trend": { "pointCount": 2, "pairCount": 1, "spanHours": 27, "rawLogSlopePerHour": -0.0006298876490994838, "shrinkage": 0.1764705882352941, "relativeLogSlopePerHour": -0.00011115664395873243, "effectiveHorizonHours": 5.308781206286283, "multiplier": 0.9994100677760788, "note": "相对历史的近期增长经收缩和阻尼外推" }, "referenceFinalHead": 17763204291.5, "estimatedFinalHead": 26627465646.79035, "estimatedFinalHeadWithoutTrend": 26643183319.178177, "rawHistoricalRemainingGrowth": 1.0088543788850581, "rankCandidates": { "top1": 33257294606.598003, "top50": 25429438399.162903 } } ], "inputSnapshots": [ { "snapshotId": "s17-wx-20261017-1600", "at": "2026-10-17T08:00:00.000Z", "capturedUntil": "2026-10-17T07:55:03.000Z", "availableAt": "2026-10-17T08:24:15.000Z" }, { "snapshotId": "s17-wx-20261017-2000", "at": "2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z", "capturedUntil": "2026-10-17T12:12:20.000Z", "availableAt": "2026-10-17T13:05:24.000Z" }, { "snapshotId": "s17-wx-20261018-1400", "at": "2026-10-18T06:00:00.000Z", "capturedUntil": "2026-10-18T05:49:03.000Z", "availableAt": "2026-10-18T06:13:03.344Z" }, { "snapshotId": "s17-wx-20261019-1400", "at": "2026-10-19T06:00:00.000Z", "capturedUntil": "2026-10-19T05:32:51.000Z", "availableAt": "2026-10-19T06:01:20.517Z" }, { "snapshotId": "s17-wx-20261020-1500", "at": "2026-10-20T07:00:00.000Z", "capturedUntil": "2026-10-20T06:45:46.000Z", "availableAt": "2026-10-20T06:59:26.076Z" }, { "snapshotId": "s17-wx-20261021-1800", "at": "2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z", "capturedUntil": "2026-10-21T08:40:00.000Z", "availableAt": "2026-10-21T11:08:06.709Z" } ] } } } ], "skipped": [ { "season": 16, "asOf": "2026-09-19T04:00:00.000Z", "reason": "no_preceding_season_trajectory" }, { "season": 16, "asOf": "2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z", "reason": "no_preceding_season_trajectory" }, { "season": 16, "asOf": "2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z", "reason": "no_preceding_season_trajectory" }, { "season": 16, "asOf": "2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z", "reason": "no_preceding_season_trajectory" }, { "season": 16, "asOf": "2026-09-20T06:30:00.000Z", "reason": "no_preceding_season_trajectory" }, { "season": 16, "asOf": "2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z", "reason": "no_preceding_season_trajectory" }, { "season": 16, "asOf": "2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z", "reason": "no_preceding_season_trajectory" }, { "season": 16, "asOf": "2026-09-21T04:00:00.000Z", "reason": "no_preceding_season_trajectory" }, { "season": 16, "asOf": "2026-09-21T04:30:00.000Z", "reason": "no_preceding_season_trajectory" }, { "season": 16, "asOf": "2026-09-21T10:00:00.000Z", "reason": "no_preceding_season_trajectory" }, { "season": 16, "asOf": "2026-09-22T10:00:00.000Z", "reason": "no_preceding_season_trajectory" }, { "season": 16, "asOf": "2026-09-22T16:00:00.000Z", "reason": "no_preceding_season_trajectory" }, { "season": 16, "asOf": "2026-09-23T09:00:00.000Z", "reason": "no_preceding_season_trajectory" }, { "season": 16, "asOf": "2026-09-23T13:30:00.000Z", "reason": "no_preceding_season_trajectory" } ], "note": "新方法是在S17结束后设计，S17历史回放没有使用S17最终值计算，但设计本身仍有事后选择影响，不能称为提前实测准确率。", "summary": { "independentTargetSeasons": [ 17 ], "firstDay": [ { "season": 17, "asOf": "2026-10-17T08:00:00.000Z", "count": 5, "mae": 634732082, "mapePercent": 3.1936589341237065, "signedPercent": 1.3666200735583933 }, { "season": 17, "asOf": "2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z", "count": 5, "mae": 397247817.2, "mapePercent": 2.167115423753654, "signedPercent": -0.45272754467517773 } ], "secondDay": [ { "season": 17, "asOf": "2026-10-18T06:00:00.000Z", "count": 5, "mae": 818873607, "mapePercent": 4.291401337158454, "signedPercent": -4.291401337158454 } ], "note": "每批结果分别展示，不用大量赛末时点稀释首日、次日误差。" } } }